Potential Double Top Formation
Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster ride, driven by mixed signals from U.S. economic data. Last week, softer-than-expected CPI figures pushed Bitcoin’s price to a new all-time high, but markets quickly reversed after PPI posted its sharpest increase since 2022. This reignited concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for longer.
This volatility caused Bitcoin to break below its four-month ascending support line (green line) while also forming a second peak in what appears to be a potential Double Top pattern (cyan lines). The key level to watch here is $112,000. If Bitcoin decisively breaks below this support, the Double Top formation points to a possible price target near $101,000, as the price target for this pattern is typically calculated by measuring its height.
However, if buyers succeed in defending the $112,000 level, the correction could be delayed, or the Double Top pattern invalidated altogether. For that to happen, Bitcoin would likely need a strong bullish catalyst, and one key event stands out as a potential market mover — Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 22, which could ultimately determine whether this pattern holds or breaks.
His comments may also shape the outlook for the rest of 2025. If he signals that rate cuts are back in September with more to follow, markets will likely rally across the board. A neutral “watching the data” stance would keep rate cut hopes alive and leave markets building pressure for a bigger move soon. But if Powell firmly pushes back on cuts, crypto and wider markets could face heavier selling.
Waning Bullish Momentum
Still, even if Powell’s remarks turn out to be favorable for crypto markets, Bitcoin may struggle to reclaim fresh all-time highs without stronger trading momentum.
Since March, Bitcoin’s price has been following a familiar setup: consolidation phases (cyan lines) followed by bullish breakouts. Yet each breakout produced a smaller upside extension — topping at the 3.414 Fibonacci level in May, the 2.414 level in July, and only the 2 level during the most recent all-time high rally. This pattern highlights a gradual loss of bullish momentum.
Daily RSI and MACD readings reinforce this view, with both indicators forming lower highs (green lines). Altogether, while Bitcoin still retains upside potential, the room for further gains appears increasingly limited.
A major factor behind its weaker performance has been declining market volume. Over the past three months, daily Bitcoin futures volume dropped 21%, while spot volume slid 22%. This decreased market activity has made each rally less sustainable, limiting the force of upward moves and amplifying downside risks when sellers step in.
Bearish RHODL Momentum Could Delay a Rally
In 2024–2025, RHODL momentum has been making lower highs (black line) and is already in bearish territory. This indicates that long-term holders are realizing smaller relative profits with each upswing.
This setup is unusual — in past cycles, bearish readings mostly appeared during bear markets and only turned positive after months of consolidation. The current divergence points to three possible paths:
- A quiet accumulation phase setting the stage for a larger, delayed breakout.
- Transition into a long stretch of modest, grinding upside.
- A deeper correction similar to the post 2021 bearish market.
Which outcome plays out will hinge on how quickly RHODL momentum recovers — a swift rebound would favor the “big move ahead” scenario, while a prolonged slump would support the slow grind or deeper correction narrative.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s next decisive move will depend heavily on Powell’s remarks, volume recovery, and whether long-term holder momentum can rebound. A sustained defense of $112,000 could keep bullish hopes alive, but weakening market structure raises the odds of a drawn-out consolidation. External forecasts reflect this uncertainty — for example, Coinpedia BTC Price Prediction points to both scenarios, with the 2025 price target currently ranging from $72,000 to $168,000.