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Bitcoin Impact Index (Week 27): Bitcoin Supply in Loss Exceeds Supply in Profit for the First Time Since the FTX Collapse
Bitcoin supply in loss has just exceeded Bitcoin supply in profit. In past cycles, this crossover preceded cycle bottoms within three months.
Stablecoins in Q2 2026: When the Rotation Becomes a Contraction
Stablecoin supply fell for the first time since Q3 2023, as yield-bearing and crypto-backed tokens reversed prior gains.
Bitcoin Impact Index (Week 26): Long-Term Holders Haven’t Been This Underwater Since 2019
Long-term holders now hold 45% of their supply (7.47 million BTC) at a loss — the worst result for this cohort since 2019.
Bitcoin Impact Index (Week 25): Bitcoin Spending Hit a 2-Year Low
More than half of all spent volume comes from coins that are less than two months old, while experienced holders remain largely inactive.
Bitcoin Impact Index (Week 24): 10 Million Bitcoin Are Now Underwater — Levels Not Seen Since 2018 and 2022 Bottoms
In both previous cycles, this milestone appeared near the cycle low, although not always at the exact bottom itself.
Bitcoin Impact Index (Week 23): Short-Term Holders Just Had Their Worst Week Since 2015
The pain for recent buyers was historically extreme because because it hit people who thought the bottom was already in.
Bitcoin Impact Index (Week 22): Long-Term Holder Supply Reached a New All-Time High — Is it Good or Bad?
Long-term holder supply hit a new all-time high in absolute terms, collectively owning 16.39 million BTC — 82% of all BTC in circulation.
Bitcoin Impact Index (Week 21): A Signal That Preceded 20%+ Drops in 2018 and 2022 Just Flashed Again
The short-term holder cost basis moved below Bitcoin’s true mean price — this crossover preceded weekly drops of 21% in 2018 and 34% in 2022.
Bitcoin Impact Index (Week 20): Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio Hits Its Lowest Level Since October 2023
This suggests that holders have little urgency to exit right now, but large moves tend to be preceded by such a period of compression.
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