Signal of the week: Bitcoin’s Coinday NVT and RVT ratios — which measure whether the price has outrun actual network usage — hit their highest readings since December 2023. Historically, similar surges preceded a major slowdown in the uptrend or a transition to a bearish trend.
Both short- and long-term holders are in profit, and selling pressure has decreased significantly. However, several indicators outside of holder behavior are starting to flash warning signs — and historically, this tends to happen just before the easiest phase of a rally comes to an end.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it’s severe enough to shake confidence in the market’s direction. It combines on-chain holder behaviour, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants are doing rather than what they are saying.
Score bands:
- Normal Rotation (0–24) — routine profit-taking, no structural shift
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups shifting positions, pressure uneven across the market
- High Impact (50–74) — broad stress across multiple holder groups and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Impact (75–100) — full capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations, and heavy exchange inflows at once
Week 18 (April 27 – May 3): BII 30.2 — Elevated Repositioning
The index value dropped to one of its lowest levels as the current holder picture is one of the best in 2026. However, there are still signals that a potential bullish trap may take place.
Positive signals: holders are the least stressed they have been in 2026
As Bitcoin surpassed $80,000, both short- and long-term holders have largely moved into profit, with short-term holder profitability hovering near 2026 highs. Long-term SOPR ticked up further to 1.51, meaning veterans are selling at a 51% profit margin on average. This suggests that neither group is under significant pressure.
Exchange inflows dropped to 16,570 BTC daily average, now close to three-year lows. A similar drop occurred in early April before the price made a sustained breakout above $75,000. As less Bitcoin arrives at exchanges to be sold, bulls currently have less upper resistance.
Negative signals: multiple warning signs appeared at once
Bitcoin’s Coinday NVT and RVT ratios — which measure how expensive Bitcoin looks relative to the actual economic activity on its network — recently surged for both short- and long-term holders to their highest levels since December 2023. Think of it like a price-to-earnings ratio for Bitcoin: when these ratios surge, it means the price has moved faster than the underlying usage justifies. Historically, rapid increases in these metrics have preceded slowdowns in Bitcoin’s upward momentum, which can potentially transition to bearish trends.
Alongside that, stablecoin flows to exchanges swung from a +$117M daily average last week to -$245M this week — one of largest single-week reversal in 2026. This suggests that fresh capital is still leaving exchanges rather than arriving to buy, which means the current price level is being supported by thin buying.
Mixed signals: accumulation and funding rates calmed down
The cost of being short fell this week as funding rates moved from their extreme lows toward a less punishing level. That is partly positive — the short squeeze pressure that has been building for weeks released some steam. But funding rates remain negative, meaning shorts are still net paying to hold their positions and the bearish conviction has not fully unwound.
Long-term accumulation calmed down after last week’s historic buying spree, with net LTH balances increasing by 52,000 BTC. That is a natural cooldown after a record run, but the supply-absorption tailwind is still in play, which can help bulls to support an upside move to a certain level.
What could happen next
As highlighted in the previous overview, Bitcoin’s breakout of $80,000 and short-term holder cost basis would be a real test for bulls. With the current holder health and short squeeze dynamics, Bitcoin could still maintain an upward move, but it may be limited by thinning fresh demand and stretched valuation metrics.
Elevated NVT and RVT readings also suggest the transition from momentum-driven gains to a more grinding, uncertain phase where gains could become harder to sustain and any negative catalyst lands harder than it would in a healthier valuation environment. The ongoing stablecoin outflow is the more immediate concern: two consecutive weeks of fresh capital leaving rather than arriving would mean the buyer base is thinning even as the holder base looks healthy.
As a result, the current bullish momentum still looks fragile, suggesting that a rapid bullish-to-bearish trend change remains possible. To support the momentum, bulls would need to keep the price above $80,000, with rising LTH accumulation and/or positive funding rates alongside it. Without it, a bearish move could just be delayed.
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