- Bitcoin appears poised to reach $100,000 in the short term, though a pullback beforehand could provide a stronger foundation for its continued upward trajectory.
- The NVT Golden Cross divergence points to transaction volume growth and potential undervaluation, reinforcing a bullish outlook.
- While retail investors have been taking profits near the all-time high, wallets holding 100-1,000 BTC have been leading in accumulation.
Weekly outlook
Bitcoin’s new all-time high
November continues to solidify its reputation as one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with the cryptocurrency recording a 30% price surge so far. This rally has been largely tied to the “Trump trade,” reflecting optimism about the president-elect’s crypto-friendly promises. However, historical data suggested that Bitcoin’s broader trajectory would likely have remained positive regardless of the election outcome. Moreover, the election primarily served as a psychological barrier, delaying investment decisions until its conclusion.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high near $93,400 following U.S. CPI data that showed inflation rising by 0.2% to 2.6%. Shortly after, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comment that “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.” This briefly pushed Bitcoin below $90,000 and decreased chances of the rate cut in December
As a result, Bitcoin’s price entered a consolidation phase, forming a symmetrical triangle with signs of a bullish pennant pattern. The Volume Oscillator has been declining during this phase, showing upticks on upward moves, indicating that bulls might still have the upper hand. The RSI on a 4-hour chart has been in a descending trend, but a solid breakout above the resistance line (white line) could hint at further continuation of the bullish move.
Notably, this price action resembles Bitcoin’s performance in December 2020, when Bitcoin also jumped by 30% amid the breakout of an all-time high. Back then, the asset experienced a week-long consolidation before resuming its upward trend.
NVT Golden Cross divergence
As Bitcoin reached new highs, the NVT Golden Cross showed a divergence, falling below -1.6. This could signal either a lag in transaction volume relative to price appreciation (bearish sign), or potential undervaluation (bullish sign).
Source: CryptoQuant
In November, USD-denominated transfer volume doubled, while BTC-denominated one increased by 40%. This suggests a combination of organic network activity and price-driven demand, potentially providing a more solid foundation for further price gains. Thus, the NVT Golden Cross divergence leans toward a bullish signal, indicating that the current pause in momentum may be temporary, with further upward movement likely once this consolidation phase concludes.
Source: Checkonchain
ETFs hint at a potential local bottom
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted the sixth week of consecutive inflows, totaling $2.04 billion. However, the bullish trend softened after a record daily inflow of $1.3 billion on November 7, culminating in a $400 million outflow last Thursday. Historically, such significant outflows have coincided with local bottoms, suggesting the possibility of renewed upward momentum unless outflows persist.
Source: SoSoValue
Retail investors led in profit-taking near the all-time high
Over the past month, as Bitcoin’s price climbed, retail wallets (<100 BTC) consistently showed a negative 30-day balance change, which accelerated after breaking the all-time high. This suggests sustained selling activity, which has been exceeding other wallet holder cohorts.
In contrast, sharks (100-1,000 BTC) steadily accumulated Bitcoin throughout the period, capitalizing on the upward price momentum. Whales (>1,000 BTC) initially increased their balances before shifting to net outflows, indicating redistribution. Exchange wallets continued experiencing outflows, with Bitcoin reserves decreasing by 2.5% over the last week.
Source: Checkonchain
Is there a pullback potential?
Historically, the 20-day EMA (yellow line) and 50-day SMA (orange line) acted as key dynamic support lines throughout post-halving rallies. For instance, during Bitcoin’s climb from $10,000 to $60,000 in 2020-2021, these levels acted as turning points, reestablishing bullish momentum after local pullbacks. Despite recent consolidation, Bitcoin currently trades far above these averages, suggesting that a pullback could provide a healthier foundation for its upward trajectory.
Furthermore, Bitcoin futures and options markets have reached or approached all-time highs in both volume and open interest. Perpetual futures funding rates and long position premiums are at their highest levels since March. Typically, such spikes preceded pullbacks or short-term consolidations during bull runs. If the correction unfolds, the 20-day EMA could act as a potential target for bears.
Source: Checkonchain
Longer term outlook
Despite the possibility of a pullback, Bitcoin seems to be in a classic post-halving rally. The asset formed a Cup and Handle pattern on the weekly chart suggesting a target of $120,000 if fully realized. The weekly MACD has also produced a bullish crossover (green circle), historically a precursor to prolonged rallies.
In turn, the Pi Cycle Oscillator is currently at levels similar to Q4 of previous halving years. From this position, it has historically taken Bitcoin about 3-6 months to surpass the 350-day SMA x2, which currently stands near $120,000. Notably, when the 111-day SMA crosses the said moving average, this event historically coincided with the formation of cycle peaks.
Source: Checkonchain
Conclusion
Bitcoin is well-positioned to continue its post-halving rally, showing a convergence of macroeconomic factors, institutional interest, and robust on-chain activity. A bullish scenario suggests that a $100,000 mark could be broken in the coming weeks, but a stronger correction may follow in this case. Conversely, a bearish scenario suggests a retest of the 20-day EMA, which, while slowing the pace to a six-digit price, could strengthen the foundation for a more sustainable bull run.
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